SEIAR Epidemic Model on the Spread on the Spread of COVID-19 in the Special Region of Yogyakarta
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26555/jim.v10i1.30866Keywords:
Model Epidemik,, COVID-19,, Titik Kesetimbangan,, Simulasi Numerik,Abstract
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 ( SARS-Cov-2) merupakan virus varian baru yang menyebabkan penyakit menular yang disebut dengan Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). World Health Organization (WHO) menyatakan COVID-19 sebagai pandemi global pada tanggal 11 Maret 2020. Untuk menggambarkan penyebaran COVID-19, pada artikel ini disusun model epidemik SEIAR yang menunjukkan dinamika populasi dari lima kompartmen, yaitu kelompok rentan, kelompok terpapar, kelompok terinfeksi bergejala, kelompok terinfeksi tanpa gejala, dan kelompok sembuh. Hasil penelitian ini diperoleh dua titik kesetimbangan, yaitu titik kesetimbangan penyakit dan titik kesetimbangan endemik. Analisis kestabilan titik kesetimbangan dengan menggunakan kriteria Routh-Hurwitz menunjukkan titik kesetimbangan bebas penyakit bersifat stabil asimtotik lokal pada saat R_0<1 dan tidak stabil pada saat R_0>1 . Selanjutnya, pada prediksi kasus COVID-19 di Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta yang diperkirakan nilai R_0=1,48. Kemudian dilakukan analisis sensitivitas untuk mengetahui parameter yang paling berpengerauh terhadap bilangan reproduksi dasar. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan laju infeksi (β) merupakan parameter yang paling berpengaruh terhadap penyebaran COVID-19 di Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta. Hasil penelitian ini diharapkan menjadi salah satu referensi kepada pemerintah Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta untuk menekan laju infeksi pada kasus penyebaran COVID-19.
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