Electricity Demand and Supply Planning Analysis for Sumatera Interconnection System using Integrated Resources Planning Approach
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26555/jiteki.v5i1.13178Keywords:
energy planning, sumatra electricity, integrated resource planning, LEAP, optimizationAbstract
The Sumatra interconnection system, which is the second-largest electricity system in Indonesia, is often experiencing rolling blackouts. That caused by a lack of supply from the power generating system of Sumatra. The Government has planned to develop new power plants through the fast track program (FTP). Until 2015, either power outages and supply shortages are still common. Therefore, an analysis of long-term electricity planning needed to support energy security in Sumatra. The Sumatra electricity system was modelled using integrated resource planning as a framework and the long-range energy alternative planning (LEAP) software as a tool to build and simulate the model. Three groups of scenarios will be compared are the fast track program (FTP) scenario, the biofuel mandatory (BM) scenario and optimization (OPT) scenario. The results show that the implementation of DSM programs through energy conservation scenario would be able to reduce the electricity demand in the future. On the other side, the alternative scenario shows that the electricity deficit could be resolved in 2022, while the optimization scenario shows that energy diversity would resolve the electricity crisis in the Sumatra interconnection system.References
H. Syadli, M. P. Abdullah, M. Y. Hassan, and F. Hussin, “Demand side management for reducing rolling blackouts due to power supply deficit in sumatra,†J. Teknol. Sciences Eng., vol. 69, no. 5, pp. 39–43, 2014, doi: 10.11113/jt.v69.3202.
Y. Putrasari, A. Praptijanto, W. B. Santoso, and O. Lim, “Resources, policy, and research activities of biofuel in Indonesia: A review,†Energy Reports, vol. 2, pp. 237–245, 2016, doi: 10.1016/j.egyr.2016.08.005
L. Gacitua et al., “A comprehensive review on expansion planning: Models and tools for energy policy analysis,†Renew. Sustain. Resources, policy, and research activities of biofuel in Indonesia: A review Energy Rev., vol. 98, no. September, pp. 346–360, 2018, doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2018.08.043.
A. Mirakyan and R. De Guio, “Modelling and uncertainties in integrated energy planning,†Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev., vol. 46, no. 0, pp. 62–69, 2015, doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2015.02.028.
Y. Tanoto, E. A. Handoyo, and R. Sutjiadi, “Accounting framework based electricity energy planning software involving renewable energy,†ICCEREC 2015 - Int. Conf. Control. Electron. Renew. Energy Commun., pp. 103–107, 2015, doi: 10.1109/ICCEREC.2015.7337025.
H. Mubarok and R. Septyawan, “Analysis of PLN’s Electrical Energy Demand in the Area of Batam-Indonesia Using the Linear Regression Method,†Proc. - 2018 4th Int. Conf. Sci. Technol. ICST 2018, vol. 1, pp. 1–5, 2018, doi: 10.1109/ICSTC.2018.8528660.
Y. Lefaan and R. Dalimi, “Electricity Demand Forecasting of Household Sector in Papua Province 2050,†Proc. 2018 Int. Conf. Electr. Eng. Comput. Sci. ICECOS 2018, vol. 17, pp. 291–296, 2019, doi: 10.1109/ICECOS.2018.8605233.
M. A. McNeil, N. Karali, and V. Letschert, “Forecasting Indonesia’s electricity load through 2030 and peak demand reductions from appliance and lighting efficiency,†Energy Sustain. Dev., vol. 49, pp. 65–77, 2019, doi: 10.1016/j.esd.2019.01.001.
C. A. Dortolina, N. Bacalao, R. Nadira, and P. De Arizon, “Integrated resource planning in developing countries - a novel practical approach,†in IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting, 2004, vol.2, pp. 1243-1249, 2004, doi: 10.1109/PES.2004.1373054.
R. Wilson and B. Biewald, Best Practices in Electric Utility Integrated Resource Planning. Montpeiler: Synapse Energy Economics, 2013, available at: Google Scholar.
O. T. Kinto, J. L. De Oliveira Bernal, A. L. Veiga Gimenes, and M. E. Morales Udaeta, “Sustainable Energy Technologies in the Industry Using Integrated Energy Resources Planning,†Energy Procedia, vol. 118, pp. 4–14, 2017, doi: 10.1016/j.egypro.2017.07.002.
M. M. Rafique and G. Ahmad, “Targeting sustainable development in Pakistan through planning of integrated energy resources for electricity generation,†Electr. J., vol. 31, no. 7, pp. 14–19, 2018, doi: 10.1016/j.tej.2018.08.001.
Y. Zheng, D. Ren, Z. Guo, Z. Hu, and Q. Wen, “Research on integrated resource strategic planning based on complex uncertainty simulation with case study of China,†Energy, vol. 180, pp. 772–786, 2019, doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2019.05.120.
N. Indrawan et al., “Palm biodiesel prospect in the Indonesian power sector,†Environ. Technol. Innov., vol. 7, pp. 110–127, 2017, doi: 10.1016/j.eti.2017.01.001.
R. D. Prasad and A. Raturi, “Low carbon alternatives and their implications for Fiji’s electricity sector,†Util. Policy, vol. 56, no. February 2018, pp. 1–19, 2019, doi: 10.1016/j.jup.2018.10.007.
A. Bhuvanesh, S. T. Jaya Christa, S. Kannan, and M. Karuppasamy Pandiyan, “Aiming towards pollution free future by high penetration of renewable energy sources in electricity generation expansion planning,†Futures, vol. 104, no. December 2017, pp. 25–36, 2018, doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2018.07.002.
N. H. Mirjat, M. A. Uqaili, K. Harijan, G. Das Walasai, M. A. H. Mondal, and H. Sahin, “Long-term electricity demand forecast and supply side scenarios for Pakistan (2015–2050): A LEAP model application for policy analysis,†Energy, vol. 165, pp. 512–526, 2018, doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.10.012.
G. Hu, X. Ma, and J. Ji, “Scenarios and policies for sustainable urban energy development based on LEAP model – A case study of a postindustrial city: Shenzhen China,†Appl. Energy, vol. 238, no. May 2018, pp. 876–886, 2019, doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.01.162.
C. Liya and G. Jianfeng, “Scenario analysis of CO 2 emission abatement effect based on LEAP,†Energy Procedia, vol. 152, pp. 965–970, 2018, doi: 10.1016/j.egypro.2018.09.101.
N. V. Emodi, T. Chaiechi, and A. B. M. R. Alam Beg, “Are emission reduction policies effective under climate change conditions? A backcasting and exploratory scenario approach using the LEAP-OSeMOSYS Model,†Appl. Energy, vol. 236, no. December 2018, pp. 1183–1217, 2019, doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.12.045.
J. A. Nieves, A. J. Aristizábal, I. Dyner, O. Báez, and D. H. Ospina, “Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions analysis in Colombia: A LEAP model application,†Energy, vol. 169, pp. 380-397, 2019, doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.12.051.
J. H. Hong et al., “Long-term energy strategy scenarios for South Korea: Transition to a sustainable energy system,†Energy Policy, vol. 127, no. July 2018, pp. 425–437, 2019, doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.11.055.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Authors who publish with JITEKI agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal the right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY-SA 4.0) that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
