Flicker Measurement and Grey Disaster Prediction of Grid-connected Wind Turbines

Zhanqiang Zhang, Keqilao Meng, Li Zhang


Grid-connected operation of large-scale wind turbines(WTs) will have an impact on power quality of electric power systems. Therefore, on the basis of analyzing the International Electrotechnical standard IEC 61400-21, we described the measurement, evaluation method of the flicker of WTs and proposed the method of grey disaster prediction.Active power, reactive power, flicker coefficient and flicker severity of the WTs were tested on the actual wind farm according to the IEC 61400-21 standard. We believed that the flicker severity was a disaster, so used the grey disaster prediction to predict the occurrence time of excessive flicker.Analysis of the test data of flicker was necessary,which could determine the Upper disaster threshold of the flicker.The disaster sequence was made up of the excessive flicker values. The date sequence was extracted from the disaster sequence. Establishing GM (1,1) model for the date sequence was to predict the future disaster date sequence.The experimental results showed that the relative accuracy of the disaster prediction model reached 94.87%, which was suitable for long-term flicker disaster prediction.

Full Text:



SUN Tao, WANG Wei-sheng, DAI Hui-zhu. Voltage Fluctuation and Flicker Caused by

Wind Power Generation. Power System Technology.2003;27(12): 62-66.

DONG Wei-jie, BAI Xiao-min, ZHU Ning-hui. Discussion on the Power Quality Under

Grid-Connection of Intermittent Power Sources. Power System Technology.2013;37(5):


CHI Yong-ning,LIU Yan-hua2,WANG Wei-sheng.Study on Impact of Wind Power

Integration on Power System.Power System Technology.2007;31(3):77-81.

IEC Standards Association.61400-21.Measurement and assessment of power quality characteristics of grid connected wind turbines.Switzerland:IEC Press;2008.

Braulio Barahona, Poul Sørensen, Leif Christensen. Validation of the Standard Method

for Assessing Flicker From Wind Turbines.IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ENERGY


A. Tascikaraoglu, M. Uzunoglu, B. Vural. Power quality assessment of wind turbines