Flicker Measurement and Grey Disaster Prediction of Grid-connected Wind Turbines

Zhanqiang Zhang, Keqilao Meng, Li Zhang


Grid-connected operation of large-scale wind turbines(WTs) will have an impact on power quality of electric power systems. Therefore, on the basis of analyzing the International Electrotechnical standard IEC 61400-21, we described the measurement, evaluation method of the flicker of WTs and proposed the method of grey disaster prediction.Active power, reactive power, flicker coefficient and flicker severity of the WTs were tested on the actual wind farm according to the IEC 61400-21 standard. We believed that the flicker severity was a disaster, so used the grey disaster prediction to predict the occurrence time of excessive flicker.Analysis of the test data of flicker was necessary,which could determine the Upper disaster threshold of the flicker.The disaster sequence was made up of the excessive flicker values. The date sequence was extracted from the disaster sequence. Establishing GM (1,1) model for the date sequence was to predict the future disaster date sequence.The experimental results showed that the relative accuracy of the disaster prediction model reached 94.87%, which was suitable for long-term flicker disaster prediction.

Full Text:



SUN Tao, WANG Wei-sheng, DAI Hui-zhu. Voltage Fluctuation and Flicker Caused by

Wind Power Generation. Power System Technology.2003;27(12): 62-66.

DONG Wei-jie, BAI Xiao-min, ZHU Ning-hui. Discussion on the Power Quality Under

Grid-Connection of Intermittent Power Sources. Power System Technology.2013;37(5):


CHI Yong-ning,LIU Yan-hua2,WANG Wei-sheng.Study on Impact of Wind Power

Integration on Power System.Power System Technology.2007;31(3):77-81.

IEC Standards Association.61400-21.Measurement and assessment of power quality characteristics of grid connected wind turbines.Switzerland:IEC Press;2008.

Braulio Barahona, Poul Sørensen, Leif Christensen. Validation of the Standard Method

for Assessing Flicker From Wind Turbines.IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ENERGY


A. Tascikaraoglu, M. Uzunoglu, B. Vural. Power quality assessment of wind turbines

and comparison with conventional legal regulations: A case study in Turkey. Applied

Energy.2011;88 (12) 1864–1872.

Manoj Gupta, Rajesh Kumar, Ram Awtar Gupta.Neural Network Based Indexing and Recognition of Power Quality Disturbances.TELKOMNIKA.2011,9(2) :227-236.

LEI Gang, GU Wei, YUAN Xiao-dong. Application of grey theory in power quality

comprehensive evaluation. Electric Power Automation Equipment.2009; 37(11):62-65.

ZHOU Hui,YANG Hong-geng,WU Chuan-lai. A power quality comprehensive evaluation

method based on grey clustering. Power System Protection and Control.2012;


SHEN Yangwu,PENG Xiaotao,SHI Tongqin. A Grey Comprehensive Evaluation

Method of Power Quality Based on Optimal Combination Weight. Automation of electric

Power Systems.2012;36(10):67-73.

H. J. Lu, G. W. Chang, H. J. Su. A New Method for Flicker Severity Forecast. IEEE Power

and Energy Society General Meeting (PES) .Canada. 2013:1-5.

Yu Chun-yu, Guo Jian-ying, Xin Shi-guang.Failure Mechanism Analysis and Failure Number Prediction of Wind Turbine Blades.TELKOMNIKA.2014,12(3) :533-540.

IEC Standards Association.61000-4-15.Testing and measurement techniques–Flickermeter – Functional and design specifications.Switzerland:IEC Press;2010.

Liu Sifeng,Dang Yaoguo,Fang Zhigeng.Grey Systems Theory and Application.Beijing:

Science Press.2010:226-247.

Jie Cui, Si-feng Liu, Bo Zeng. A novel grey forecasting model and its optimization.

Applied Mathematical Modelling.2013;37(6):4399-4406.

Bo Zeng, Guo Chen, Si-feng Liu. A novel interval grey prediction model considering

uncertain information. Journal of the Franklin Institute.2013;350 (10) :3400–3416.

Liu Sifeng,Deng Julong.The Range Suitable for GM(1,1). Systems Engineering —Theory

& Practice. 2000;20(5):212-124.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12928/telkomnika.v13i2.993

Article Metrics

Abstract view : 197 times
PDF - 227 times


  • There are currently no refbacks.

Copyright (c) 2019 Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

TELKOMNIKA Telecommunication, Computing, Electronics and Control
ISSN: 1693-6930, e-ISSN: 2302-9293
Universitas Ahmad Dahlan, 4th Campus, 9th Floor, LPPI Room
Jl. Ringroad Selatan, Kragilan, Tamanan, Banguntapan, Bantul, Yogyakarta, Indonesia 55191
Phone: +62 (274) 563515, 511830, 379418, 371120 ext. 4902, Fax: +62 274 564604

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.