The Forecasting Technique Using SSA-SVM Applied to Foreign Tourist Arrivals to Bali

Yosep Oktavianus Sitohang, Yudhie Andriyana, Anna Chadidjah

Abstract


In order to achieve a targeted number of foreign tourist arrivals set by the Indonesian government in 2017, it requires an appropriate plan. The estimated number of foreign tourist arrivals to Bali as a major tourist destination in Indonesia, is needed in the planning. Hence, we should use a proper forecasting technique. Due to a non-linearity pattern of tourist arrivals, we then need a non-classical forecasting method, in this case we propose to use a Support Vector Machine (SVM) technique. Furthermore, the effects of noise components have to be filtered. Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) plays an important role in filtering such noise. Therefore, the combination of these two methods (SSA-SVM) will be used to predict the number of foreign tourist arrivals to Bali in 2017. The performance of SSA-SVM is evaluated via simulation studies and applied to tourist arrivals data in Bali. As the results, SSA-SVM shows better performances compare to other methods.

Keywords


foreign tourist, singular spectrum analysis, support vector machine

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12928/telkomnika.v16i2.7293

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