A Comparison of Retweet Prediction Approaches: The Superiority of Random Forest Learning Method

Hendra Bunyamin, Tomas Tunys

Abstract


We consider the following retweet prediction task: given a tweet, predict whether it will be retweeted. In the past, a wide range of learning methods and features has been proposed for this task. We provide a systematic comparison of the performance of these learning methods and features in terms of prediction accuracy and feature importance. Specifically, from each previously published approach we take the best performing features and group these into two sets: user features and tweet features. In addition, we contrast five learning methods, both linear and non-linear. On top of that, we examine the added value of a previously proposed time-sensitive modeling approach. To the authors’ knowledge this is the first attempt to collect best performing features and contrast linear and non-linear learning methods. We perform our comparisons on a single dataset and find that user features such as the number of times a user is listed, number of followers, and average number of tweets published per day most strongly contribute to prediction accuracy across selected learning methods. We also find that a random forest-based learning, which has not been employed in previous studies, achieves the highest performance among the learning methods we consider. We also find that on top of properly tuned learning methods the benefits of time-sensitive modeling are very limited.


Keywords


retweet prediction; machine learning algorithms; performance

Full Text:

PDF


DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12928/telkomnika.v14i3.3150

Article Metrics

Abstract view : 406 times
PDF - 360 times

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2019 Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

TELKOMNIKA Telecommunication, Computing, Electronics and Control
ISSN: 1693-6930, e-ISSN: 2302-9293
Universitas Ahmad Dahlan, 4th Campus, 9th Floor, LPPI Room
Jl. Ringroad Selatan, Kragilan, Tamanan, Banguntapan, Bantul, Yogyakarta, Indonesia 55191
Phone: +62 (274) 563515, 511830, 379418, 371120 ext. 4902, Fax: +62 274 564604

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

View TELKOMNIKA Stats