A novel model for solar radiation prediction

Ibrahim S. Madugu, B. J. Olufeagba, Yinusa A. Adediran, F. Abdulkadir, A. Abdulkarim, James U. Inaku, A. U. Lawan

Abstract


Energy for fulfilling basic community/individual needs has come to constitute the first article of expectation in all contemporary societies. The exploitation of renewables notably solar in electricity generation has brought relief to the fulfilment of energy demand especially among susceptible communities. In this paper yearly minimum solar radiation of Kano (12.05°N; 08.2°E; altitude 472.5 m; 3 air density 1.1705 kg/m3) for 46 years is used to generate a prediction model that fits the data using autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and a new model termed autoregressive moving average process (ARMAP). Comparison between the ARMA and ARMAP models showed a tremendous improve in the sum of square error reduction between the actual data and the forecasted data by 47%.

Keywords


mean absolute percentage error; solar radiation; sum of square error; root mean square error; time series;

Full Text:

PDF


DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12928/telkomnika.v17i6.12729

Article Metrics

Abstract view : 72 times
PDF - 44 times

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2019 Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

TELKOMNIKA Telecommunication, Computing, Electronics and Control
ISSN: 1693-6930, e-ISSN: 2302-9293
Universitas Ahmad Dahlan, 4th Campus, 9th Floor, LPPI Room
Jl. Ringroad Selatan, Kragilan, Tamanan, Banguntapan, Bantul, Yogyakarta, Indonesia 55191
Phone: +62 (274) 563515, 511830, 379418, 371120 ext. 4902, Fax: +62 274 564604

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

View TELKOMNIKA Stats